Products related to Uncertainty:
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Reckoning with Risk : Learning to Live with Uncertainty
Gerd Gigerenzer's Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight. However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world.But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us?Are we misled by our ignorance of the reality of risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways.With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, or in DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome. 'Indispensable ... The book will change the attentive reader's way of looking at the world' Sunday Telegraph 'An important book ... the reader is presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics ... anyone who wants to take responsibility for their own medical choices should read it' New Scientist 'Gigerenzer makes clear thinking easier' Evening Standard 'More than ever, citizens need to know how to evaluate risk ...This book should be pressed into the palms of ' Independent Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago.He has published two academic books on heuristics, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart and Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox as well as a popular science book, Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making.
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Taming Uncertainty
An examination of the cognitive tools that the mind uses to grapple with uncertainty in the real world. How do humans navigate uncertainty, continuously making near-effortless decisions and predictions even under conditions of imperfect knowledge, high complexity, and extreme time pressure?Taming Uncertainty argues that the human mind has developed tools to grapple with uncertainty.Unlike much previous scholarship in psychology and economics, this approach is rooted in what is known about what real minds can do.Rather than reducing the human response to uncertainty to an act of juggling probabilities, the authors propose that the human cognitive system has specific tools for dealing with different forms of uncertainty.They identify three types of tools: simple heuristics, tools for information search, and tools for harnessing the wisdom of others.This set of strategies for making predictions, inferences, and decisions constitute the mind's adaptive toolbox. The authors show how these three dimensions of human decision making are integrated and they argue that the toolbox, its cognitive foundation, and the environment are in constant flux and subject to developmental change.They demonstrate that each cognitive tool can be analyzed through the concept of ecological rationality-that is, the fit between specific tools and specific environments.Chapters deal with such specific instances of decision making as food choice architecture, intertemporal choice, financial uncertainty, pedestrian navigation, and adolescent behavior.
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Embracing Uncertainty
'Susan Jeffers' wisdom feels like a precious gift. Her counsel is profound and meaningful in such challenging times.' MARIANNE WILLIAMSON'Original, courageous and brilliant!' WARREN FARRELL* * * * * * * * * *Nobody knows what will happen in the next moment of our lives.Whatever is in store for us, the only thing we CAN be sure of is that nothing in life is certain. And since we all fear the unknown, life's uncertainty can be a constant source of worry to us. But, as bestselling author Susan Jeffers explains, life doesn't have to be one worry after the next, a steady stream of 'what if's', and a constant attempt to create a secure haven for ourselves.In EMBRACING UNCERTAINTY she emphasises that an unknown future doesn't prevent a rich and abundant life, and shows how by enjoying life's unpredictability we transform ourselves from a position of fear to one filled with excitement and potential. Through invaluable case-studies, exercises and her pragmatic wisdom, Susan convinces us, above all, that life is exhilarating because of, not in spite of the uncertainty.
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Facing Uncertainty
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What is uncertainty?
Uncertainty refers to a lack of certainty or predictability about a situation or outcome. It is the state of not knowing what will happen in the future or the level of confidence one can have in a particular decision or event. Uncertainty can arise from various factors such as incomplete information, complexity, or randomness, and it can lead to feelings of doubt, anxiety, or hesitation. In many cases, uncertainty can be managed through risk assessment, planning, and flexibility in decision-making.
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What is extreme uncertainty?
Extreme uncertainty refers to a situation where there is a high level of unpredictability and ambiguity surrounding future outcomes. It is characterized by a lack of clear information or data to make informed decisions, leading to a wide range of potential outcomes. In such circumstances, traditional forecasting methods may not be effective, and decision-making becomes challenging. Extreme uncertainty can result from various factors such as rapid technological advancements, geopolitical instability, or global pandemics.
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What causes uncertainty regarding sexuality?
Uncertainty regarding sexuality can be caused by a variety of factors, including societal norms and expectations, lack of education or information about different sexual orientations, personal experiences that may challenge one's understanding of their own sexuality, and fear of judgment or discrimination from others. Additionally, the fluidity and complexity of human sexuality can also contribute to feelings of uncertainty as individuals may not fit neatly into traditional categories or labels. Overall, the multifaceted nature of sexuality and the diversity of human experiences can lead to uncertainty and confusion for many people.
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What causes uncertainty regarding virginity?
Uncertainty regarding virginity can be caused by various factors, including differing cultural beliefs and definitions of virginity. Additionally, lack of education and understanding about human anatomy and sexual health can contribute to confusion about what constitutes virginity. Social pressures and expectations surrounding virginity can also create uncertainty, as individuals may feel conflicted between personal beliefs and societal norms. Lastly, the subjective nature of virginity, which can be influenced by individual experiences and interpretations, can further contribute to uncertainty surrounding this concept.
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Education in Radical Uncertainty : Transgression in Theory and Method
Drawing upon the long tradition of recalcitrant thought in Western humanist scholarship, this book rethinks education and educational research at a time of intense social transformation.By revisiting a range of post-foundational ideas and developing their own methodological experiment, Stephen Carney and Ulla Ambrosius Madsen reimagine the possibilities for the comparative study of education.Exploring the experiences of young people in Denmark, South Korea and Zambia, this book illustrates how these very different contexts are increasingly connected by common narratives of purpose, as well as overheated promises of success. Focusing on the writings of Jean Baudrillard, the authors examine them in the context of works by other theorists of modernity, to explore processes of simulation and disappearance that are shaping life worldwide.In the process, the authors paint a rich portrait of education and schooling as a site of joy, hope, pain and ambivalence.Encompassing both theoretical and methodological innovation, Education in Radical Uncertainty provides inspiration for scholars and students attempting to approach the fields of comparative education, education policy and youth studies anew.
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Schooling as Uncertainty : An Ethnographic Memoir in Comparative Education
In today’s uncertain world, few beliefs remain as firmly entrenched as the optimistic view that more schooling will lead to a better life.Though this may be true in the aggregate, how do we explain the circumstances when schooling fails to produce certainty or even does us harm?Schooling as Uncertainty addresses this question by combining ethnography and memoir as it guides readers on a 30-year journey through fieldwork and familyhood in Tanzania and academic life in the USA.Using reflexive, longitudinal ethnographic research, the book examines how African youth, particularly young women, employ schooling in an attempt to counter the uncertainties of marriage, child rearing, employment, and HIV/AIDS.Adopting a narrative approach, Vavrus tells the story of how her life became entangled with a community on Mount Kilimanjaro and how she and they sought greater security through schooling and, to varying degrees, succeeded.
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Schooling as Uncertainty : An Ethnographic Memoir in Comparative Education
In today’s uncertain world, few beliefs remain as firmly entrenched as the optimistic view that more schooling will lead to a better life.Though this may be true in the aggregate, how do we explain the circumstances when schooling fails to produce certainty or even does us harm?Schooling as Uncertainty addresses this question by combining ethnography and memoir as it guides readers on a 30-year journey through fieldwork and familyhood in Tanzania and academic life in the USA.Using reflexive, longitudinal ethnographic research, the book examines how African youth, particularly young women, employ schooling in an attempt to counter the uncertainties of marriage, child rearing, employment, and HIV/AIDS.Adopting a narrative approach, Vavrus tells the story of how her life became entangled with a community on Mount Kilimanjaro and how she and they sought greater security through schooling and, to varying degrees, succeeded.
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Reasoning about Uncertainty
Formal ways of representing uncertainty and various logics for reasoning about it; updated with new material on weighted probability measures, complexity-theoretic considerations, and other topics. In order to deal with uncertainty intelligently, we need to be able to represent it and reason about it.In this book, Joseph Halpern examines formal ways of representing uncertainty and considers various logics for reasoning about it.While the ideas presented are formalized in terms of definitions and theorems, the emphasis is on the philosophy of representing and reasoning about uncertainty.Halpern surveys possible formal systems for representing uncertainty, including probability measures, possibility measures, and plausibility measures; considers the updating of beliefs based on changing information and the relation to Bayes' theorem; and discusses qualitative, quantitative, and plausibilistic Bayesian networks. This second edition has been updated to reflect Halpern's recent research.New material includes a consideration of weighted probability measures and how they can be used in decision making; analyses of the Doomsday argument and the Sleeping Beauty problem; modeling games with imperfect recall using the runs-and-systems approach; a discussion of complexity-theoretic considerations; the application of first-order conditional logic to security.Reasoning about Uncertainty is accessible and relevant to researchers and students in many fields, including computer science, artificial intelligence, economics (particularly game theory), mathematics, philosophy, and statistics.
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How can one hide uncertainty?
One can hide uncertainty by maintaining a confident demeanor, using vague language to avoid committing to a specific answer, and redirecting the conversation to a different topic. Additionally, one can prepare in advance by researching the topic in question to have some knowledge to fall back on. It is important to remember that it is okay to admit when you are unsure about something rather than trying to hide it.
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What causes uncertainty about vaccinations?
Uncertainty about vaccinations can be caused by a variety of factors. These may include misinformation or myths about vaccine safety and effectiveness, lack of understanding about how vaccines work, fear of potential side effects, and mistrust in the healthcare system. Additionally, conflicting information from different sources, such as social media or celebrities, can contribute to confusion and doubt about the importance of vaccinations. Overall, a lack of clear and accurate information can lead to uncertainty and hesitancy towards vaccines.
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What is uncertainty regarding transsexuality?
Uncertainty regarding transsexuality refers to the lack of understanding or clarity surrounding the experiences and identities of transgender individuals. This uncertainty can manifest in various ways, such as confusion about gender identity, societal misconceptions, and a lack of education about transgender issues. It can also lead to discrimination, stigma, and barriers to accessing appropriate healthcare and support services for transgender individuals. Overall, uncertainty regarding transsexuality highlights the importance of promoting awareness, acceptance, and inclusivity for all gender identities.
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What causes uncertainty while driving?
Uncertainty while driving can be caused by various factors such as poor weather conditions like heavy rain, fog, or snow, which can reduce visibility and road traction. Additionally, unfamiliar roads or driving in new locations can also lead to uncertainty as drivers may not be aware of the road layout or potential hazards. Other drivers' unpredictable behavior, such as sudden lane changes or running red lights, can also create uncertainty on the road. Lastly, mechanical issues with the vehicle, like strange noises or warning lights, can make drivers unsure about the safety and reliability of their vehicle.
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